Sun, Mar 13, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 216 | 113 | 19 | 438 |
| BUF | 213 | 311 | 19 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Tim Connolly, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:52OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–1
- P1 12:26BUFThomas VanekAssists: Paul Gaustad, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 18:16OTTColin GreeningAssists: Jesse Winchester, Jason Spezza · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 1:37BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Tim Connolly, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 2:10BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Mark Mancari, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P2 9:39OTTJason SpezzaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 14:34BUFNathan GerbeGWGAssists: Mike Weber, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 8:16BUFBrad BoyesPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.02 xG3–6
- P3 19:15OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:36BUFChris Butler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:41BUFAndrej Sekera: Charging2 min
- P1 19:56BUFChris Butler: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:56OTTErik Karlsson: Diving2 min
- P1 19:56OTTErik Karlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:42BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:52BUFChris Butler: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:16OTTFilip Kuba: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shannon won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSvatos – Shannon – Condra11:06
xG 0.57–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Lessard – Potulny – Winchester3:40
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Spezza – Greening – Butler10:47
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Neil – Foligno – Smith9:30
xG 0.17–0.46 (28%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Smith12:25
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Lee2:01
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:40
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Vanek – Mancari8:03
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Connolly – Boyes – Ennis12:05
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Gerbe6:11
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick7:35
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Myers14:42
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Leopold – Sekera20:14
xG 0.47–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Morrisonn – Weber13:45
xG 0.71–0.88 (45%)attempts 12–20goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).