Tue, Mar 15, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 015 | 216 | 48 | 639 |
| DAL | 09 | 215 | 113 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:28DALMike RibeiroAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 5:08DALToby PetersenSHAssists: Jamie Benn, Karlis Skrastins · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 6:23SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 12:40SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–2
- P3 1:51SJSRyane CloweAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 3:31SJSTorrey MitchellGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamal Mayers · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 8:11DALJamie BennPPAssists: Steve Ott, Jamie Langenbrunner · Backhand, 0.36 xG4–3
- P3 18:52SJSJoe ThorntonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–3
- P3 19:19SJSDany HeatleyENAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.52 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P2 4:12SJSDouglas Murray: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12DALSteve Ott: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:12DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:07DALBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:09DALJamie Benn: Delaying game2 min
- P2 16:08SJSJamal Mayers: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04SJSPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:54SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min
- P3 17:59SJSLogan Couture: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Clowe – Couture14:14
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell10:27
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi10:22
xG 0.31–0.47 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Vlasic11:47
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Boyle – Murray16:44
xG 0.57–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun2:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Benn – Vincour2:13
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn7:20
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Benn3:40
xG 0.07–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Petersen – Williams – Wandell4:21
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Goligoski16:35
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Skrastins – Grossmann10:33
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Woywitka – Daley17:17
xG 0.53–0.97 (35%)attempts 19–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).