Sat, Mar 19, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 111 | 29 | 13 | 533 |
| MIN | 114 | 19 | 210 | 03 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02CBJRick NashAssists: Derek Dorsett, Samuel Pahlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:52MINBrad StaubitzAssists: John Madden, Clayton Stoner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:25MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Mikko Koivu, John Madden · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 19:04CBJKris RussellAssists: Sami Lepisto, Rick Nash · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:17CBJJan HejdaAssists: Rick Nash, Sami Lepisto · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 13:40CBJRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard, Sami Lepisto · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 14:53MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Nick Schultz, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 17:57MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–4
- OT 4:26CBJAntoine VermetteGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:46CBJMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P2 3:59CBJScottie Upshall: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:59MINMikko Koivu: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:03MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:03CBJDerek Dorsett: Instigator2 min
- P2 15:03CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:03CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:03MINBrad Staubitz: Charging2 min
- P2 18:03CBJScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:03MINMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Miettinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Voracek10:37
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Vermette – Umberger – Upshall14:50
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert2:53
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Boll – Calvert3:29
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hejda – Clitsome5:21
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Rivet – Russell11:25
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Methot17:35
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Koivu – Kobasew6:25
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Madden – Clutterbuck6:41
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak9:04
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Madden – Havlat – Bouchard2:16
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns19:59
xG 0.53–0.24 (68%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon3:01
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon3:29
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).