Sun, Mar 20, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 16 | 010 | 29 | 11 | 426 |
| BUF | 011 | 317 | 010 | 00 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44NSHBlake GeoffrionAssists: Colin Wilson, J-P Dumont · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:04BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Paul Gaustad, Mark Mancari · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:46BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 19:00BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Ryan Miller · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 17:33NSHBlake GeoffrionUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:37NSHBlake GeoffrionAssists: Cody Franson, Sergei Kostitsyn · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 0:27NSHMartin EratGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, David Legwand · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:50NSHSergei Kostitsyn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:22NSHCody Franson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:54NSHRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Ward10:41
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Wilson5:51
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist8:21
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling9:31
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber20:16
xG 1.23–0.92 (57%)attempts 27–22goals 0–1
- Klein – Blum14:03
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Franson13:00
xG 0.10–0.53 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Pominville – Vanek14:36
xG 1.45–0.59 (71%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Mancari – Gerbe11:57
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick9:05
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Boyes – Stafford – Ennis12:30
xG 0.04–0.82 (5%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Sekera2:20
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Leopold – Butler15:29
xG 0.67–0.58 (54%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Sekera – Myers18:54
xG 0.99–0.91 (52%)attempts 22–18goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).