Fri, Mar 25, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 08 | 110 | 224 |
| BUF | 110 | 111 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 4:01FLASergei SamsonovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:33BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Brad Boyes, Tyler Ennis · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 9:43BUFJordan LeopoldPPGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Drew Stafford · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 9:56BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–4
- P3 19:57FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 10:49FLAStephen Weiss: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:10BUFNathan Gerbe: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:12FLASergei Samsonov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:15BUFMark Mancari: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:38BUFMark Mancari: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:38FLAKeaton Ellerby: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRissmiller – Santorelli – Repik10:00
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Carter3:42
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Santorelli2:29
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors12:12
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weaver – Garrison16:10
xG 0.53–0.56 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Callahan – Sulzer15:23
xG 0.47–0.99 (32%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Ellerby – Kulikov17:03
xG 0.28–1.66 (15%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Stafford – Ennis9:38
xG 1.15–0.30 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek11:46
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Mancari – Gerbe12:07
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick9:26
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers14:17
xG 2.06–0.40 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 2–1
- Morrisonn – Weber11:54
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber3:13
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).