Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 05 | 110 | 224 |
| DET | 115 | 14 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Jiri Hudler · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 17:56TORNazem KadriAssists: Joey Crabb · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 9:17DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 6:11TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–2
- P3 6:49DETJiri HudlerGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:08DETTodd BertuzziENAssists: Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:24TORJoey Crabb: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:23DETBrad Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:48DETJakub Kindl: Holding2 min
- P2 8:45TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:56TORDarryl Boyce: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:56DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:03DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:53DETJiri Hudler: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:51
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown4:40
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:08
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Crabb – Boyce – Kadri7:35
xG 0.13–0.43 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie15:01
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
- Aulie – Schenn3:10
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Schenn12:22
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Eaves – Helm7:22
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Modano – Holmstrom – Filppula9:37
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Miller – Abdelkader4:40
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Miller – Abdelkader3:26
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Kindl12:34
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Lidstrom – Stuart15:05
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:15
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).