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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 26, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Detroit Red Wings 4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:19Shot by Filppula, saved by Reimer
  3. P1 2:31Shot by Helm, saved by Reimer
  4. P1 2:41Shot by Helm, saved by Reimer
  5. P1 3:08Shot by Grabovski, saved by Howard
  6. P1 4:24Crabb: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Modano, Holmstrom, Rafalski, Filppula, Kindl · TOR Crabb, Boyce, Aulie, Gunnarsson, Kadri

  7. P1 5:05Goal by Zetterberg (Lidstrom, Hudler)5v4+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Lidstrom, Cleary, Rafalski, Zetterberg, Hudler · TOR Brent, Brown, Gunnarsson, Schenn

  8. P1 5:54Shot by Eaves, saved by Reimer
  9. P1 6:10Shot by Grabovski, saved by Howard
  10. P1 8:27Shot by Helm, saved by Reimer
  11. P1 8:32Shot by Stuart, saved by Reimer
  12. P1 9:15Shot by Modano, saved by Reimer
  13. P1 10:25Shot by Eaves, saved by Reimer
  14. P1 10:36Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Howard
  15. P1 11:39Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Reimer
  16. P1 11:44Shot by Rafalski, saved by Reimer
  17. P1 12:29Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer
  18. P1 13:37Shot by Lebda, saved by Howard
  19. P1 14:35Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Howard
  20. P1 14:46Shot by Kindl, saved by Reimer
  21. P1 15:23Stuart: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Cleary, Stuart, Zetterberg · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Schenn

  22. P1 16:42Shot by Grabovski, saved by Howard4v5
  23. P1 17:01Shot by Kulemin, saved by Howard4v5
  24. P1 17:56Goal by Kadri (Crabb)+18 pts WP

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Cleary, Rafalski, Zetterberg, Kindl · TOR Crabb, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Kadri

  25. P1 18:21Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  26. P1 18:28Shot by Modano, saved by Reimer
  27. P1 18:34Shot by Cleary, saved by Reimer
  28. P1 0:00Period end
  29. P2 0:00Period start
  30. P2 3:48Kindl: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Rafalski, Hudler, Miller, Kindl, Abdelkader · TOR Sjostrom, Brent, Brown, Aulie, Schenn

  31. P2 4:42Shot by Stuart, saved by Reimer4v5
  32. P2 5:38Shot by Kadri, saved by Howard4v5
  33. P2 5:48Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Howard
  34. P2 6:02Shot by Crabb, saved by Howard
  35. P2 7:25Shot by Grabovski, saved by Howard
  36. P2 8:45Lupul: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Modano, Holmstrom, Kronwall, Filppula, Ericsson · TOR Komisarek, Lupul, Lebda, Kessel, Bozak

  37. P2 9:10Shot by Filppula, saved by Reimer5v4
  38. P2 9:17Goal by Holmstrom (Kronwall, Rafalski)5v4+21 pts WP

    On ice: DET Modano, Holmstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall, Filppula · TOR Phaneuf, Grabovski, Kulemin, Aulie

  39. P2 12:18Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer
  40. P2 15:56Boyce: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Rafalski, Miller, Kindl, Abdelkader · TOR Komisarek, Crabb, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Kadri

  41. P2 15:56Abdelkader: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Rafalski, Miller, Kindl, Abdelkader · TOR Komisarek, Crabb, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Kadri

  42. P2 17:03Helm: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Modano, Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Ericsson, Helm · TOR Komisarek, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  43. P2 18:24Shot by Kadri, saved by Howard4v5
  44. P2 19:53Hudler: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Holmstrom, Rafalski, Filppula, Hudler, Ericsson · TOR Sjostrom, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Bozak

  45. P2 0:00Period end
  46. P3 0:00Period start
  47. P3 1:57Shot by Helm, saved by Reimer
  48. P3 3:16Shot by Holmstrom, saved by Reimer
  49. P3 3:48Shot by Schenn, saved by Howard
  50. P3 6:11Shot by Kessel, saved by Howard
  51. P3 6:11Goal by Lupul (Kessel, Phaneuf)+30 pts WP

    On ice: DET Draper, Holmstrom, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Ericsson · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Grabovski, Kessel, Aulie

  52. P3 6:29Shot by Hudler, saved by Reimer
  53. P3 6:49Goal by Hudler (Zetterberg)+31 pts WP

    On ice: DET Lidstrom, Cleary, Stuart, Zetterberg, Hudler · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Schenn

  54. P3 7:21Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by MacDonald
  55. P3 7:25Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by MacDonald
  56. P3 7:47Shot by Kronwall, saved by Reimer
  57. P3 8:14Shot by Aulie, saved by MacDonald
  58. P3 9:31Shot by Modano, saved by Reimer
  59. P3 10:11Shot by Cleary, saved by Reimer
  60. P3 10:20Shot by Kulemin, saved by MacDonald
  61. P3 11:39Shot by Helm, saved by Reimer
  62. P3 14:34Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Reimer
  63. P3 16:20Shot by Phaneuf, saved by MacDonald
  64. P3 17:07Shot by Crabb, saved by MacDonald
  65. P3 18:01Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by MacDonald
  66. P3 19:08Goal by Bertuzzi (Kronwall)5v6+5 pts WP

    On ice: DET Bertuzzi, Kronwall, Filppula, Ericsson, Abdelkader · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Kessel, Aulie, Schenn, Kadri

  67. P3 0:00Period end
  68. P3 0:00Final