Tue, Mar 29, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 3, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 011 | 314 | 332 |
| NSH | 010 | 15 | 02 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:01NSHMike FisherAssists: Jonathon Blum, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 1:17VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 17:31VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 19:51VANAaron RomeENAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:47VANVictor Oreskovich: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:22NSHJonathon Blum: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:46NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:20NSHJ-P Dumont: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:07VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57VANAlexandre Bolduc: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:08NSHJonathon Blum: Holding2 min
- P3 10:59VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:02NSHJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:57VANSami Salo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows7:32
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Raymond8:09
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Torres – Lapierre – Hansen6:33
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Tambellini – Bolduc – Oreskovich4:20
xG 0.01–0.20 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Rome12:42
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Salo – Ehrhoff12:11
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Salo – Rome2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Dumont – Geoffrion – Wilson5:54
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling6:46
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist11:13
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Legwand – Erat – Ward10:10
xG 0.07–0.55 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- O'Brien – Franson8:04
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Blum2:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Klein – O'Brien2:55
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).