Thu, Mar 31, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 211 | 16 | 02 | 323 |
| WSH | 115 | 212 | 04 | 12 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Brooks Laich, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 11:10CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Matt Calvert, Tomas Kubalik · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:32WSHMike KnubleAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 13:14CBJFedor TyutinAssists: Tomas Kubalik, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 13:27WSHJason ArnottAssists: Marco Sturm · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 14:23CBJScottie UpshallAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:30WSHJason ChimeraGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:18CBJScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:59WSHMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:00CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:00WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:06WSHMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Voracek14:01
xG 0.48–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Mayorov6:39
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett11:00
xG 0.64–0.71 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
- Vermette – Calvert – Kubalik11:34
xG 0.36–1.27 (22%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Russell14:00
xG 1.15–0.56 (67%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Methot17:13
xG 0.45–0.99 (31%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Hejda – Stralman16:49
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom15:39
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Gordon7:59
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Arnott – Sturm – Semin13:50
xG 1.04–0.96 (52%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
- Chimera – Laich – Johansson8:55
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Carlson3:22
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hannan – Schultz19:48
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–23goals 2–0
- Erskine – Sloan5:21
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).