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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 2, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:31Shot by Svatos, saved by Reimer
  3. P1 1:09Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  4. P1 1:30Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  5. P1 1:38Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  6. P1 1:56Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer
  7. P1 2:57Shot by Butler, saved by Reimer
  8. P1 3:22Shot by Kulemin, saved by Anderson
  9. P1 4:10Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  10. P1 4:20Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  11. P1 4:46Shot by Bozak, saved by Anderson
  12. P1 5:45Condra: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: OTT Hale, Benoit, Shannon, Condra, Da Costa · TOR Crabb, Boyce, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Kadri

  13. P1 7:30Shot by Lashoff, saved by Anderson4v5
  14. P1 7:31Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson4v5
  15. P1 7:49Shot by Winchester, saved by Reimer
  16. P1 9:23Shot by MacArthur, saved by Anderson
  17. P1 12:23Goal by Kessel (Grabovski, MacArthur)+20 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Spezza, Benoit, Michalek, Condra · TOR Phaneuf, MacArthur, Grabovski, Kessel, Aulie

  18. P1 12:22Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson
  19. P1 13:52Shot by Winchester, saved by Reimer
  20. P1 15:13Rosehill: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Spezza, Svatos, Benoit, Michalek · TOR Rosehill, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson, Schenn

  21. P1 19:16Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer
  22. P1 19:22Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:59Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer
  26. P2 2:58Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson
  27. P2 3:43Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  28. P2 4:32Goal by Kadri, unassisted+15 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Hale, Spezza, Michalek, Wiercioch, Butler · TOR Crabb, Boyce, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Kadri

  29. P2 5:05Shot by Foligno, saved by Reimer
  30. P2 5:48Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer
  31. P2 6:09Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  32. P2 6:10Shot by Lupul, saved by Anderson
  33. P2 9:07Shot by Winchester, saved by Reimer
  34. P2 10:05Shot by Winchester, saved by Reimer
  35. P2 10:57Shot by Wiercioch, saved by Reimer
  36. P2 11:32Shot by Da Costa, saved by Reimer
  37. P2 12:48Shot by Rosehill, saved by Anderson
  38. P2 15:40Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer
  39. P2 15:58Shot by Smith, saved by Reimer
  40. P2 19:05Goal by Spezza (Butler)+14 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Spezza, Benoit, Michalek, Butler · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Kessel, Aulie, Schenn

  41. P2 0:00Period end
  42. P3 0:00Period start
  43. P3 0:30Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson
  44. P3 0:56Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer6v5
  45. P3 1:13Grabovski: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Benoit, Michalek, Shannon, Foligno, Wiercioch, Butler · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, MacArthur, Grabovski, Aulie

  46. P3 3:03Goal by Spezza (Benoit, Wiercioch)5v4+31 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Spezza, Benoit, Michalek, Condra, Wiercioch · TOR Komisarek, Brown, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  47. P3 3:43Winchester: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Neil, Lee, Foligno, Winchester · TOR MacArthur, Grabovski, Lashoff, Kessel, Kulemin, Schenn

  48. P3 4:10Shot by Kessel, saved by Anderson4v5
  49. P3 4:18Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson4v5
  50. P3 5:01Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson4v5
  51. P3 5:41Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Anderson4v5
  52. P3 5:42Goal by Bozak (Lupul, Gunnarsson)4v5+31 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Spezza, Shannon, Lee · TOR Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Bozak

  53. P3 6:29Shot by Kadri, saved by Anderson
  54. P3 6:41Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer
  55. P3 6:46Shot by Neil, saved by Reimer
  56. P3 9:14Grabovski: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Neil, Lee, Foligno, Winchester · TOR Phaneuf, MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin, Aulie

  57. P3 9:21Shot by Michalek, saved by Reimer5v4
  58. P3 11:14Shot by Benoit, saved by Reimer5v4
  59. P3 11:25Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson
  60. P3 11:44Smith: Boarding (5 min)

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Benoit, Foligno, Smith, Winchester · TOR Komisarek, MacArthur, Grabovski, Lashoff, Kulemin

  61. P3 12:07Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Anderson4v5
  62. P3 13:35Shot by Kadri, saved by Anderson4v5
  63. P3 16:18Shot by Grabovski, saved by Anderson4v5
  64. P3 16:41Shot by Brent, saved by Anderson4v5
  65. P3 18:40Goal by Kulemin (MacArthur)+5 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Phillips, Spezza, Butler, Da Costa · TOR Phaneuf, MacArthur, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson

  66. P3 19:56Shot by Spezza, saved by Reimer6v5
  67. P3 0:00Period end
  68. P3 0:00Final