Tue, Apr 5, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 0, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 04 | 014 | 08 | 026 |
| EDM | 18 | 06 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:57EDMRyan JonesPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jeff Petry · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 17:14EDMMagnus PaajarviPPAssists: Linus Omark, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 18:43VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:42EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:42VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:32VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:51VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:32EDMJim Vandermeer: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:26EDMRyan O'Marra: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:16VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:25EDMLinus Omark: Holding2 min
- P3 13:05VANRaffi Torres: Elbowing5 min · PPG
- P3 13:05EDMRyan O'Marra: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:05VANRaffi Torres: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:05VANRaffi Torres: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:55VANAaron Rome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:55VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestTambellini – Lapierre – Glass5:43
xG 0.57–0.05 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows8:08
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Torres – Hansen – Raymond6:55
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Higgins – Kesler9:03
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Rome4:24
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Rome2:32
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Salo – Sauve4:09
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestReddox – O'Marra – Eberle2:58
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Omark – Paajarvi2:33
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Jones – VandeVelde – Paajarvi4:40
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Omark – Hartikainen6:12
xG 0.02–0.43 (4%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vandermeer – Peckham11:58
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry13:53
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Foster8:53
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).