Wed, Apr 6, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 018 | 08 | 27 | 233 |
| WSH | 26 | 110 | 29 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20WSHMike KnublePPAssists: Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 19:23WSHJason ChimeraPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 11:42WSHSean CollinsGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 6:37WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Boyd Gordon, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 13:44FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Clay Wilson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 18:29FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Marty Reasoner · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 19:48WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:57FLAMike Weaver: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:59WSHTyler Sloan: Holding2 min
- P1 10:32WSHBrooks Laich: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:11FLARyan Carter: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:11WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16FLADavid Booth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:54FLAMichal Repik: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:04FLAMike Santorelli: Interference2 min
- P2 16:51WSHMike Knuble: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:48WSHBoyd Gordon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBergfors – Kennedy – Repik8:49
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Matthias – Carter – Dadonov7:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Santorelli – Bergfors2:00
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bernier – Santorelli7:20
xG 0.13–0.21 (37%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov12:17
xG 0.77–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison12:17
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Callahan – Wilson13:14
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Hendricks – Gordon9:03
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sturm – Fehr – Johansson7:31
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:38
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Chimera – Laich – Beagle8:18
xG 0.15–0.32 (33%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Collins13:54
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:36
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Erskine – Sloan11:24
xG 0.14–0.65 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).