Sat, Apr 9, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 318 | 110 | 27 | 635 |
| CAR | 012 | 115 | 117 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45TBLDominic MooreAssists: Steve Downie, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:19TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 13:17TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 10:53TBLBrett ClarkAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 13:31CARCory StillmanPPAssists: Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 8:33CARChad LaRoseAssists: Brandon Sutter, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:44TBLSimon GagneENAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–2
- P3 18:24TBLMartin St. LouisENAssists: Teddy Purcell, Mike Smith · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:29CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:03TBLSean Bergenheim: Holding2 min
- P1 13:51TBLVincent Lecavalier: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:27TBLMike Lundin: Interference2 min
- P2 12:19TBLDominic Moore: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:23TBLDana Tyrell: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25TBLPavel Kubina: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:44TBLDana Tyrell: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Ruutu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell6:04
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Gagne – Downie – Stamkos5:40
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Gagne – Purcell – Stamkos2:15
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Purcell6:08
xG 0.21–0.45 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Bergeron3:25
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Clark9:17
xG 0.76–0.46 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Brewer – Lundin8:09
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Dwyer – Sutter5:28
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman6:42
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Stillman – Cole – Staal12:22
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Samson3:01
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Joslin4:28
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Corvo – Joslin3:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen5:33
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).