Sat, Apr 9, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 312 | 210 | 530 |
| CBJ | 011 | 216 | 29 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:15CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Samuel Pahlsson, Chris Clark · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:18BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Steve Montador, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:51BUFChris ButlerAssists: Paul Gaustad, Mark Mancari · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:12BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 16:32CBJJared BollAssists: Matt Calvert, Derek MacKenzie · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 2:37CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: Antoine Vermette, Sami Lepisto · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 12:11BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Marc-Andre Gragnani · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 13:12BUFPaul GaustadPPGWGAssists: Brad Boyes, Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 19:37CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Grant Clitsome, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:12BUFShaone Morrisonn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:31BUFMark Mancari: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:26CBJChris Clark: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:46BUFShaone Morrisonn: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:44BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:44CBJCraig Rivet: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:44CBJCraig Rivet: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:44CBJCraig Rivet: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P3 19:11BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- McCormick – Ellis – Kaleta9:45
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Mancari – Gerbe8:59
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
- Boyes – Stafford – Ennis9:57
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Connolly – Pominville8:33
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Montador – Gragnani14:11
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Morrisonn – Weber14:16
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Butler – Myers13:31
xG 0.31–0.87 (26%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClark – Pahlsson – Dorsett9:40
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert8:05
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger3:48
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Upshall7:45
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Clitsome15:12
xG 0.92–0.26 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Lepisto – Clitsome2:07
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Rivet – Lepisto11:22
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).