Fri, Oct 7, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 012 | 311 | 332 |
| DET | 111 | 316 | 112 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Darren Helm, Jakub Kindl · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:39DETNicklas LidstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 9:40DETCory EmmertonAssists: Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 10:38DETJiri HudlerGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 3:12DETIan WhiteAssists: Drew Miller, Cory Emmerton · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 5:49OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Nikita Filatov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 8:22OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 18:29OTTFilip KubaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:06OTTBrian Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:16OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:06DETIan White: Interference2 min
- P3 8:03DETIan White: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09OTTFilip Kuba: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:13OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:37DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:40OTTBobby Butler: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Filatov11:45
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Neil – Foligno – Da Costa8:46
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Neil – Greening – Zibanejad3:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa3:54
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kuba – Karlsson14:14
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee14:02
xG 0.59–0.70 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 1–2
- Gonchar – Cowen14:40
xG 0.38–0.81 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCleary – Datsyuk – Hudler9:38
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Abdelkader – Helm11:59
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Franzen13:07
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Emmerton5:36
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl10:54
xG 0.91–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Lidstrom – White14:23
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Stuart – Kronwall13:57
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).