Fri, Oct 7, 2011·Hartwall Areena, HelsinkiNeutral site
Anaheim Ducks 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 113 | 011 | 130 |
| BUF | 29 | 216 | 00 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Luke Adam, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 8:30BUFVille LeinoGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera, Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:32ANANate GueninAssists: Maxime Macenauer · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:45BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek, Luke Adam · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 11:59BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:08BUFPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
- P1 2:21ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:36ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:18BUFRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P1 18:37BUFRobyn Regehr: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:37ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56ANASaku Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:21ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:01ANANate Guenin: Interference2 min
- P3 4:09BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:25BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:27BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake9:08
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Parros – Macenauer – McMillan6:35
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan14:25
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Gordon – Cogliano – Smith-Pelly7:43
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Guenin10:32
xG 0.66–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler13:27
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa11:30
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Adam6:39
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Gaustad – McCormick – Kaleta5:19
xG 0.01–0.02 (45%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Roy – Stafford – Gerbe9:34
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Leino – Ennis12:11
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Gragnani8:23
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Regehr – Myers12:49
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Leopold – Ehrhoff14:30
xG 0.28–1.16 (20%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).