Sat, Oct 8, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 06 | 516 | 532 |
| TOR | 211 | 213 | 211 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58TORMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 18:51TORPhil KesselAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 7:56TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 18:49TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 1:42OTTColin GreeningAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 2:52TORColton OrrAssists: Mike Brown · Snap, 0.36 xG1–5
- P3 11:04OTTDaniel AlfredssonSHAssists: Chris Phillips, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 15:36OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.54 xG3–5
- P3 15:44OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 17:41TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–6
- P3 18:06OTTStephane Da CostaAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–6
Penalties (23)
- P1 2:58TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:42TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:42OTTZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:12TORJoffrey Lupul: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:47OTTJared Cowen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:14OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:28TORJoffrey Lupul: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:33OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:33OTTChris Neil: Instigator2 min
- P2 6:33OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:33OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:33TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:21TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
- P3 3:01TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:20OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:12OTTNikita Filatov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:57OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:10OTTZenon Konopka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:19TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:19OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:19TORMike Komisarek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:25TORDion Phaneuf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:53TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Condra – Smith2:17
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Zibanejad2:42
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Filatov4:43
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa6:06
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson10:38
xG 1.04–0.40 (72%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Cowen8:56
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee8:27
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLombardi – Orr – Brown2:29
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak8:00
xG 0.65–0.61 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin7:56
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Steckel – Dupuis7:58
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson9:22
xG 0.88–0.01 (99%)attempts 15–2goals 2–0
- Liles – Schenn10:00
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Komisarek – Schenn2:46
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).