Sat, Oct 8, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Phoenix Coyotes 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 04 | 114 | 211 | 329 |
| SJS | 219 | 419 | 014 | 652 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 8:23SJSMichal HandzusAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Jason Demers · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 7:33SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Logan Couture, Tommy Wingels · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 8:33SJSAndrew DesjardinsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 12:16PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 16:54SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
- P2 18:42SJSAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Brad Winchester · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–6
- P3 4:56PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Daymond Langkow · Slap, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 10:25PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.15 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:47PHXTaylor Pyatt: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:10PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P2 2:39SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:25PHXDerek Morris: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:04SJSPatrick Marleau: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:39SJSDouglas Murray: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34PHXRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:09SJSJoe Thornton: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 9:00SJSTommy Wingels: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:41SJSAndrew Desjardins: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:22PHXAdrian Aucoin: Holding2 min
- P3 17:17PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:17SJSRyane Clowe: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:17SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Torres – Gordon – Korpikoski3:19
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gordon – Bissonnette – Chipchura3:47
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Langkow – Doan11:01
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Vrbata – Hanzal10:52
xG 0.43–0.88 (33%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson9:48
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Klesla2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Klesla7:53
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Mitchell – McGinn10:29
xG 1.01–0.17 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski9:43
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins7:05
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Clowe – Couture – Wingels10:43
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic10:56
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- White – Demers10:54
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray11:25
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).