Mon, Oct 17, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 213 | 312 | 733 |
| TBL | 210 | 113 | 116 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15FLATomas KopeckyPPAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 9:22TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Ryan Shannon, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 14:00TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Adam Hall, Nate Thompson · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 17:12FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 2:35FLAKris VersteegPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 12:17FLASean BergenheimSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 16:21TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Matt Gilroy · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 0:25FLAKris VersteegPPGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Stephen Weiss · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 10:53TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Gilroy, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 15:28FLAStephen WeissAssists: Kris Versteeg, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–4
- P3 16:47FLAJason GarrisonPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.05 xG7–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:35TBLAdam Hall: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:51TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:51FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 7:26FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:26TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:31FLATomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09TBLMatt Gilroy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:21TBLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:46TBLMartin St. Louis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 18:39TBLDominic Moore: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33TBLSteve Downie: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:52TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:02TBLEric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:28TBLMattias Ritola: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Kopecky – Upshall – Booth6:41
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg9:07
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Bradley – Matthias – Carter8:15
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Goc – Bergenheim – Skille12:29
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison3:41
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson2:14
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison10:24
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos7:35
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Malone – Moore – Connolly4:05
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Thompson – Purcell5:11
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Gilroy11:21
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Brewer – Hedman9:36
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Clark – Kubina10:29
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).