Sat, Oct 22, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 17 | 16 | 321 |
| OTT | 16 | 16 | 215 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47OTTFilip KubaPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:56CBJAaron JohnsonAssists: Derick Brassard, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 0:16CBJKris RussellAssists: Ryan Johansen, Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:30OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Condra, Chris Neil · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:20CBJRick NashPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:24OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–3
- P3 19:55OTTMilan MichalekPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:23CBJDavid Savard: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 14:54OTTMika Zibanejad: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:39OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:19OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:29OTTDavid Rundblad: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:36CBJKris Russell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:01OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKenzie won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Giroux – Bass6:52
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Johansen15:01
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Mayorov10:31
xG 0.08–0.28 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Brassard11:08
xG 0.50–0.76 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Russell20:12
xG 0.72–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Moore – Savard8:46
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Clitsome19:25
xG 0.47–1.02 (32%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Condra – Smith7:04
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Neil – Condra – Zibanejad3:34
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Foligno – Smith4:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Konopka – Winchester – Da Costa4:55
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips2:34
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Cowen12:38
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Phillips – Rundblad10:32
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).