Tue, Oct 25, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 16 | 17 | 423 |
| BUF | 215 | 07 | 117 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56BUFThomas VanekAssists: Jason Pominville, Luke Adam · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 2:31BUFBrad BoyesAssists: Cody McCormick, Matt Ellis · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 13:03TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P1 19:00TBLNate ThompsonAssists: Tom Pyatt, Dominic Moore · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 4:42TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Gilroy, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:37TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 19:10BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Brad Boyes, Paul Gaustad · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:12BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:20TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:37BUFRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:37TBLRyan Malone: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:12TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:15BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27BUFCody McCormick: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:07TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Jones – Pyatt2:18
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Moore – Thompson – Downie6:42
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Connolly11:22
xG 0.67–1.05 (39%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Malone – Purcell – Stamkos6:16
xG 0.16–1.15 (12%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman15:37
xG 0.89–0.30 (75%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Clark – Kubina14:10
xG 0.56–1.03 (35%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Gilroy12:14
xG 0.05–1.40 (4%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Vanek – Adam11:35
xG 1.31–0.71 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe7:33
xG 0.73–0.25 (75%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – McCormick – Ellis5:05
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Roy – Stafford – Leino10:17
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sekera13:58
xG 1.40–0.23 (86%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Leopold – Gragnani11:36
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Regehr – Myers14:18
xG 0.85–0.78 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).