Tue, Oct 25, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 015 | 010 | 131 |
| CBJ | 214 | 112 | 16 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 4:54DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 8:56CBJRyan JohansenPPGWGAssists: Grant Clitsome, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 14:16CBJJohn MooreAssists: Cody Bass, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 19:06CBJDerek MacKenzieENAssists: R.J. Umberger, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:15CBJGrant Clitsome: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:27DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 12:34DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P2 3:56DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:14CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:52DETHenrik Zetterberg: Holding2 min
- P3 2:16DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:35DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:03DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:48CBJDerek Dorsett: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Abdelkader2:56
xG 0.74–0.04 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Abdelkader – Helm2:27
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen2:35
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg3:16
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- White – Ericsson2:50
xG 0.01–0.04 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- White – Kindl2:55
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall9:55
xG 0.59–0.77 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Johansen9:07
xG 0.85–0.18 (82%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Giroux – Bass5:09
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Dorsett – Mayorov9:28
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Brassard7:30
xG 0.42–0.34 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Russell11:30
xG 1.12–0.44 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Johnson – Moore2:43
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski15:01
xG 0.56–0.70 (44%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).