Thu, Oct 27, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 112 | 16 | 325 |
| OTT | 015 | 28 | 215 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Kris Versteeg, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:27OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 6:35FLAStephen WeissAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 14:14OTTStephane Da CostaAssists: Erik Condra, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 17:53OTTColin GreeningAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:12FLAKris VersteegAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 19:56OTTNick FolignoGWGAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, David Rundblad · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:57OTTKaspars Daugavins: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:01FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00FLATomas Kopecky: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:27OTTFilip Kuba: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:08OTTStephane Da Costa: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41OTTJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:41FLAMatt Bradley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSturm – Santorelli – Skille9:49
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Upshall9:44
xG 0.38–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Bradley – Kennedy – Matthias5:28
xG 0.02–0.19 (7%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Weiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:34
xG 0.43–0.72 (37%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson9:27
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Campbell – Kulikov2:14
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Campbell – Garrison14:06
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Foligno – Da Costa12:26
xG 0.67–0.32 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening11:23
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Neil – Daugavins – Smith9:06
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Konopka – Condra – Winchester2:49
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Rundblad14:57
xG 0.87–0.59 (60%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Gonchar – Cowen11:46
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson13:33
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).