Thu, Oct 27, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 012 | 16 | 332 |
| NSH | 29 | 39 | 09 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:05NSHMike FisherAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 16:36TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Teddy Purcell, Ryan Malone · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 19:33TBLTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Brett Connolly, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 7:43NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Matt Halischuk, Blake Geoffrion · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 11:20NSHNick SpalingGWGAssists: Jack Hillen, Jonathon Blum · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P2 12:10NSHMike FisherAssists: Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 17:03TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Martin St. Louis · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:53NSHJordin Tootoo: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 0:47TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:47NSHJack Hillen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:47TBLBlair Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:22TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P3 10:04TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:34NSHPatric Hornqvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:57
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Hall – Jones – Pyatt4:03
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Malone – Purcell – Stamkos10:18
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Thompson – Downie7:17
xG 0.33–0.59 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman12:25
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Gilroy9:30
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- Kubina – Bergeron2:47
xG 0.07–0.24 (21%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson8:00
xG 0.62–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Smith7:33
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Smithson – Tootoo – Spaling8:10
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Fisher – Spaling – Smith4:05
xG 0.27–0.09 (76%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber17:04
xG 0.92–0.25 (79%)attempts 15–20goals 4–1
- Klein – Blum2:54
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein14:28
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).