Sun, Oct 30, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 07 | 19 | 225 |
| OTT | 113 | 112 | 15 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:20TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:16OTTColin GreeningPPAssists: David Rundblad, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:59OTTChris NeilPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 7:08OTTKaspars DaugavinsGWGAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 9:07TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:08OTTColin Greening: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 9:51OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:20TORCarl Gunnarsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33TORTim Connolly: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:56TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:29TORTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:37OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:42OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:59OTTKaspars Daugavins: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:55OTTSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:39
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Steckel – Dupuis – Brown6:11
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Connolly – Lupul – Kessel12:21
xG 0.66–0.43 (61%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Frattin – Bozak7:15
xG 0.04–0.72 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson12:36
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Liles – Gardiner3:17
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Liles – Phaneuf2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Winchester – Filatov2:38
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Daugavins – Smith4:09
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Butler – Da Costa4:01
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Winchester3:11
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen9:30
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson14:07
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Phillips – Rundblad10:49
xG 0.38–0.76 (33%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).