Fri, Nov 11, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 06 | 09 | 120 |
| PIT | 013 | 110 | 29 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:08DALEric NystromAssists: Radek Dvorak, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 17:56PITJames NealPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 7:19PITJames NealPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 9:28PITMatt CookeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:46DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:46PITJoe Vitale: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:17PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:26DALAdam Burish: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:48DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:06DALSheldon Souray: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28DALTrevor Daley: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:48DALKrys Barch: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:25DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom7:29
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn12:24
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish12:58
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell8:33
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Goligoski5:48
xG 0.58–0.06 (91%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Robidas – Fistric3:40
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann2:27
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestPark – Asham – Cooke3:32
xG 0.17–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Tangradi2:35
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal9:55
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Staal2:13
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Niskanen12:09
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland14:17
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Martin – Letang13:17
xG 0.13–0.78 (14%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).