Fri, Nov 11, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 011 | 014 | 137 |
| BUF | 39 | 05 | 27 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09BUFDerek RoyAssists: Drew Stafford, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 2:25BUFMatt EllisGWGAssists: Corey Tropp, Cody McCormick · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–2
- P1 4:38OTTSergei GoncharPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 14:40BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 4:00BUFLuke AdamAssists: Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 4:57BUFVille LeinoAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:35BUFRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:12BUFThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:43BUFPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:19OTTNick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P1 18:41BUFThomas Vanek: Holding2 min
- P2 7:38OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:20OTTJesse Winchester: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:25OTTZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P3 5:39OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Butler2:36
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening6:00
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek4:04
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Da Costa2:51
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Cowen11:06
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Phillips – Rundblad11:47
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:07
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Ellis – Tropp7:22
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Roy – Stafford – Leino12:25
xG 0.85–0.62 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 3–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Adam10:39
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Boyes – Gaustad – Gerbe8:04
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Gragnani15:49
xG 1.41–1.03 (58%)attempts 12–19goals 3–0
- Sekera – Myers13:37
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Regehr – Leopold13:32
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 7–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).