Tue, Nov 15, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 312 | 012 | 03 | 327 |
| PIT | 110 | 111 | 412 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:51COLJay McClementAssists: Milan Hejduk, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:24COLMatt DucheneAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Quincey · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 18:33PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 19:44COLDavid JonesAssists: Jay McClement, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 11:01PITPascal DupuisAssists: Craig Adams, Arron Asham · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 1:12PITBrooks OrpikAssists: Evgeni Malkin, James Neal · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 4:45PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 7:17PITJames NealPPAssists: Steve Sullivan, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–5
- P3 10:30PITKris LetangAssists: Jordan Staal, Joe Vitale · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:41COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:41PITArron Asham: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:45COLTJ Galiardi: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:58COLRyan O'Byrne: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:37COLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
- P2 12:01PITJames Neal: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:41COLTJ Galiardi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26COLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:57COLChuck Kobasew: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:33COLCody McLeod: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:50PITMatt Niskanen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene11:59
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Kobasew – McClement – McLeod2:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Jones – Galiardi4:27
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Winnik – O'Reilly – Landeskog9:24
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson15:12
xG 0.86–0.34 (72%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Wilson12:58
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
- Quincey – O'Brien13:39
xG 0.18–0.54 (25%)attempts 10–14goals 2–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Staal2:26
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Park – Cooke – Kennedy2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Malkin – Neal8:02
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Staal5:50
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Niskanen14:47
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Martin – Engelland11:58
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Orpik – Engelland2:32
xG 0.05–0.30 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).