Thu, Nov 17, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 18 | 022 | 139 |
| NSH | 13 | 114 | 25 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48NSHMartin EratAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:36TORJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 12:42NSHRyan SuterGWGAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 2:05NSHMartin EratAssists: Mike Fisher, Sergei Kostitsyn · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:37NSHMatt HalischukENAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.58 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:42TORMatt Frattin: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:17NSHJack Hillen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:17TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:30NSHJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25TORJoffrey Lupul: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:02NSHBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:02TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:02NSHBrian McGrattan: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:46
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 0–3
- Connolly – Kulemin – Frattin7:08
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Steckel – Crabb5:28
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Frattin – Bozak3:35
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Franson14:01
xG 0.96–0.18 (84%)attempts 24–3goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson10:51
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gardiner3:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Geoffrion – Spaling9:20
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Smithson – Halischuk4:46
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Smithson – Halischuk – Spaling2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Wilson – Smith11:07
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Blum – Hillen12:54
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein16:28
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber17:58
xG 0.58–0.83 (41%)attempts 13–20goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).