Sat, Nov 19, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Boston Bruins 6, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 313 | 06 | 311 | 630 |
| NYI | 02 | 011 | 010 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 12:24BOSNathan HortonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 18:45BOSChris KellyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 10:25BOSAndrew FerenceAssists: Joe Corvo, Chris Kelly · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 12:54BOSChris KellyAssists: Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.28 xG5–0
- P3 18:15BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Brad Marchand, Gregory Campbell · Snap, 0.09 xG6–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:52NYIBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:23NYIMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34NYIMark Streit: Holding2 min
- P2 17:44NYIMilan Jurcina: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:53BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:24NYIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic11:58
xG 0.61–0.01 (98%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Peverley – Pouliot9:18
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin9:43
xG 0.33–0.15 (70%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille10:10
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Seidenberg14:57
xG 1.04–0.53 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 3–0
- Chara – Boychuk11:46
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid3:51
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Parenteau – Nielsen11:36
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Pandolfo – Bailey – Martin9:35
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Comeau – Niederreiter11:15
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
- Moulson – Grabner – Tavares13:52
xG 0.09–0.69 (11%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Eaton11:35
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Streit – Hamonic13:07
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Jurcina – MacDonald8:57
xG 0.09–0.21 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).