Sun, Nov 20, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 07 | 213 | 225 |
| CAR | 110 | 119 | 112 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31CARJay HarrisonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:05CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 4:31TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P3 13:08CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–3
- P3 19:00TORPhil KesselAssists: John-Michael Liles, Tim Connolly · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:46TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:06TORMatt Frattin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:54CARBrandon Sutter: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:24TORCarl Gunnarsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:10CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:21TORTyler Bozak: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:08TORJoe Colborne: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:08CARChad LaRose: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:06CARAlexei Ponikarovsky: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:24TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Steckel – Crabb – Colborne7:51
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Connolly – Lupul – Kessel3:56
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak10:55
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Orr – Dupuis – Rosehill4:00
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Phaneuf3:12
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson10:22
xG 0.26–0.86 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson14:40
xG 0.52–1.31 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Staal – Skinner10:18
xG 1.15–0.14 (89%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Brent – Stewart – Boychuk3:29
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter10:33
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose7:17
xG 0.37–0.28 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Gleason17:54
xG 2.76–0.37 (88%)attempts 35–9goals 1–0
- Harrison – Faulk13:46
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Kaberle – McBain9:21
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).