Fri, Nov 25, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 113 | 010 | 129 |
| CBJ | 215 | 310 | 09 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50CBJMark LetestuAssists: Ryan Johansen, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 16:19CBJRick NashPPGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Jeff Carter · Deflected, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 4:17CBJMarc MethotAssists: James Wisniewski, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 4:29CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 8:01BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Zack Kassian, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 14:07CBJRick NashAssists: Jeff Carter, Nikita Nikitin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:43BUFLuke Adam: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:17CBJGrant Clitsome: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:50BUFMarc-Andre Gragnani: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:32BUFMatt Ellis: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:11CBJDerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:46BUFTJ Brennan: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:46CBJDerek Dorsett: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00CBJJeff Carter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hecht won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Leino9:29
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Adam – Kassian2:25
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Tropp2:39
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ellis – Adam – Kassian5:13
xG 0.01–0.03 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Ehrhoff3:52
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Brennan2:47
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Brennan3:13
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Brassard9:36
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Umberger – Letestu – Johansen8:23
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Pahlsson – Vermette – Dorsett9:56
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Prospal – Nash – Carter12:55
xG 0.34–0.88 (28%)attempts 6–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin14:58
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Moore13:23
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Methot13:33
xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 6–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).