Fri, Nov 25, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 08 | 16 | 02 | 1 | 423 |
| DAL | 17 | 18 | 114 | 00 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03DALEric NystromAssists: Michael Ryder, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:55TORJoey CrabbAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Joe Colborne · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 14:53TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:38DALEric NystromAssists: Radek Dvorak, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 6:55TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Tim Connolly, Nikolay Kulemin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 12:47DALRadek DvorakAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR Phil Kessel stopped
- 2. DAL Loui Eriksson stopped
- 3. TOR Joe Colborne stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 5. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 6. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:51DALMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:16TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:55DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:35TORJoffrey Lupul: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:12TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:55DALJake Dowell: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:22TORMatt Frattin: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:59DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Frattin – Colborne10:25
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Connolly – MacArthur – Kulemin11:42
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Steckel – Dupuis – Rosehill2:42
xG 0.02–0.02 (58%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak12:18
xG 0.09–1.06 (8%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Gardiner17:45
xG 0.53–0.54 (50%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Liles – Phaneuf5:59
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson6:47
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:18
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn13:27
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell5:32
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Ott – Vincour10:17
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSouray – Robidas12:58
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Daley – Grossmann15:28
xG 1.06–0.54 (66%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Fistric – Larsen12:22
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).