Sun, Nov 27, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 012 | 211 | 337 |
| OTT | 26 | 112 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:55OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:03CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Brett Sutter, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:03OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 19:46OTTDavid RundbladAssists: Bobby Butler, Zenon Konopka · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 6:46CAREric StaalAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 12:35OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Kaspars Daugavins, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 16:49CARAlexei PonikarovskyPPAssists: Chad LaRose, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:20OTTErik Condra: Interference2 min
- P1 12:27OTTJared Cowen: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:14OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:14CARDerek Joslin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 17:21CARBrandon Sutter: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:36CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:39OTTNick Foligno: Interference2 min
- P2 5:57OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:57CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:57OTTJesse Winchester: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:10OTTJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:46CARBrett Sutter: Holding2 min
- P3 0:36OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:17CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:56OTTNikita Filatov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:16OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBrent – Stewart – Sutter5:14
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner9:30
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter8:25
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose7:17
xG 0.08–0.34 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain13:06
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Allen – Gleason2:04
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gleason – Faulk9:29
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Greening – Filatov9:43
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Konopka – Winchester – Butler3:23
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Daugavins – Condra – Smith8:03
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Foligno8:06
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Karlsson12:12
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips9:15
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Cowen – Rundblad9:21
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).