Sat, Dec 3, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 113 | 219 | 340 |
| CAR | 012 | 16 | 114 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:34PITCraig AdamsAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 18:41CARJamie McBainAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Anthony Stewart · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 8:33PITArron AshamAssists: Craig Adams, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 10:00PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–1
- P3 12:29CARJamie McBainPPAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.29 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:56CARPatrick Dwyer: Holding2 min
- P3 9:11CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:11PITJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:33PITSteve Sullivan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34PITArron Asham: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:56PITPascal Dupuis: Holding2 min
- P3 19:04PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:42CAREric Staal: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:42PITCraig Adams: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:14
xG 1.47–0.38 (79%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal9:26
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Park – Asham – Adams5:56
xG 0.01–0.05 (10%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sullivan – Malkin – Neal11:31
xG 0.68–0.84 (45%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Niskanen13:01
xG 1.14–0.43 (73%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin2:28
xG 0.27–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland2:55
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Jokinen – LaRose10:57
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Staal – Stewart – Nodl3:09
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter9:44
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Staal – Skinner13:18
xG 0.43–1.13 (28%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Allen5:45
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Allen – Joslin4:46
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – McBain15:14
xG 0.55–0.71 (43%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).