Sat, Dec 3, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Rangers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 113 | 314 | 436 |
| TBL | 110 | 17 | 09 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24TBLSteve DownieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:38NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Brad Richards, Ryan Callahan · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 17:42TBLTom PyattAssists: Dana Tyrell, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 6:16NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 16:41NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Artem Anisimov, Ryan McDonagh · Slap, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 19:34NYRBrad RichardsENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P3 12:25TBLPavel Kubina: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:58NYRRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:49TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Mitchell – Hagelin11:03
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Anisimov – Stepan13:33
xG 0.86–0.54 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Avery – Dubinsky – Prust4:02
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Fedotenko – Callahan15:25
xG 0.50–0.83 (38%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Eminger9:11
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Sauer – Del Zotto17:23
xG 0.85–0.73 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh24:23
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 22–22goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Downie11:52
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Malone – Purcell – Stamkos11:01
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Moore – Shannon – Connolly8:05
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:40
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Hedman20:11
xG 1.02–0.39 (72%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Clark – Kubina13:41
xG 0.21–0.66 (25%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Gilroy17:21
xG 0.10–1.08 (9%)attempts 5–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).