Sat, Dec 3, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 27 | 03 | 14 | 314 |
| NSH | 08 | 09 | 217 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00BUFLuke AdamAssists: Ville Leino, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:27BUFZack KassianAssists: Luke Adam, Ville Leino · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 4:54NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: David Legwand, Colin Wilson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 15:45BUFTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:25NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Roman Josi, Jonathon Blum · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:51NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:13BUFLuke Adam: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:34NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:54NSHJordin Tootoo: Charging5 min
- P2 15:54NSHJordin Tootoo: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:54BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:54BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:54BUFPaul Gaustad: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:09BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:24BUFDrew Stafford: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19NSHPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:19BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLeino – Adam – Kassian6:12
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek10:22
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Tropp4:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis9:23
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – McNabb4:55
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Gragnani10:22
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Regehr – Sekera8:17
xG 0.01–0.04 (18%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson8:59
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Halischuk – Spaling7:09
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Hornqvist2:44
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Fisher – Erat – Smith9:26
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber10:49
xG 0.79–0.05 (94%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Klein – Hillen12:44
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi4:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).