Sat, Dec 3, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 5, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 39 | 08 | 527 |
| DAL | 09 | 412 | 013 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–0
- P1 10:54NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 2:48NYIDylan ReeseAssists: Matt Martin, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 3:27DALTomas VincourAssists: Stephane Robidas, Mike Ribeiro · Deflected, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 4:53DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 5:30DALJake DowellAssists: Tom Wandell, Toby Petersen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 5:57NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P2 16:08DALTom WandellAssists: Jake Dowell, Radek Dvorak · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P2 17:10NYIMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:34NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:08DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:08NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:08NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:55DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:55NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:55DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:34DALTomas Vincour: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:44DALRadek Dvorak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:29
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:40
xG 1.00–0.92 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 3–1
- Rolston – Bailey – Ullstrom6:40
xG 0.11–0.15 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hamonic15:07
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Staios – Jurcina13:05
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Mottau – Reese11:47
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Ott – Vincour12:48
xG 0.97–0.69 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:41
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn14:25
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Petersen – Dowell – Wandell6:06
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrossmann – Pardy14:34
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Fistric – Larsen15:15
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Souray – Robidas15:05
xG 1.16–1.36 (46%)attempts 25–15goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).