Sun, Dec 4, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 04 | 114 | 229 |
| COL | 07 | 219 | 29 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:08DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:26COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:11COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–2
- P3 5:08DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:22COLTJ GaliardiSHGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:26COLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Jay McClement, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:34DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:29COLKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:43DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:26COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:51DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P3 1:16COLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:24COLRyan Wilson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Hudler – Abdelkader2:48
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Miller – Abdelkader2:08
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen6:15
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen2:52
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ericsson – Kindl3:19
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson7:33
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall4:11
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Stastny – Duchene9:32
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Hejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog10:39
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- McClement – Winnik – Galiardi10:04
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – O'Brien9:00
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Wilson6:57
xG 0.39–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Elliott3:33
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).