Fri, Dec 9, 2011·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 110 | 06 | 02 | 123 |
| BUF | 17 | 06 | 03 | 14 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:50BUFDerek RoyAssists: Drew Stafford, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 15:48FLAJason GarrisonPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 2:19BUFJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Paul Szczechura, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:17FLAMike Santorelli: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:06BUFBrayden McNabb: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:59FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:29FLATim Kennedy: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:17FLAMarco Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:24BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min
- P3 5:50BUFThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:46FLATomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Fleischmann – Versteeg10:04
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Bergenheim – Matthias11:39
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Sturm – Santorelli – Skille7:42
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Barch – Kennedy – Dadonov6:49
xG 0.10–0.45 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Gudbranson8:58
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – Garrison14:26
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov12:10
xG 0.03–0.76 (3%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Ennis9:19
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Szczechura – Adam – Kassian6:01
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Stafford2:38
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek5:41
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Gragnani13:19
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Leopold – McNabb11:01
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Regehr – Leopold2:29
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).