Sat, Dec 17, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 114 | 213 | 29 | 536 |
| TOR | 110 | 19 | 110 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02VANChris HigginsAssists: Alexander Edler, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 3:58TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.52 xG1–1
- P2 0:49VANMason RaymondAssists: Ryan Kesler, Chris Higgins · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:33TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 19:16VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 14:06VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 17:17TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, John-Michael Liles · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 18:20VANJannik HansenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:17VANKeith Ballard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:57TORKeith Aulie: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:43TORTim Connolly: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:43VANDale Weise: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows15:15
xG 0.92–0.26 (78%)attempts 31–8goals 2–0
- Lapierre – Mancari – Weise6:35
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Raymond11:32
xG 0.81–1.08 (43%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson10:22
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa20:42
xG 1.62–1.08 (60%)attempts 36–11goals 3–1
- Salo – Edler15:30
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Ballard – Rome13:44
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Frattin12:16
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Crabb – Grabovski – Kulemin2:09
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin2:23
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Crabb – Dupuis – Kessel2:32
xG 0.01–0.07 (9%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner3:33
xG 0.46–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Aulie – Gardiner4:09
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson15:27
xG 0.77–0.75 (51%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).