Wed, Dec 21, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, San Jose Sharks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 015 | 14 | 224 |
| SJS | 513 | 019 | 211 | 743 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:26SJSBenn FerrieroAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.54 xG0–1
- P1 4:51SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 6:21SJSAndrew DesjardinsGWGAssists: Andrew Murray · Wrap-around, 0.14 xG0–3
- P1 13:13SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Patrick Marleau, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P1 14:47SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Michal Handzus, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–5
- P1 15:38TBLDominic MooreAssists: Eric Brewer · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 1:15SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Michal Handzus · Slap, 0.01 xG1–6
- P3 7:45TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 12:41SJSPatrick MarleauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:36SJSTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P1 4:26TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:46TBLDominic Moore: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:35SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05SJSRyane Clowe: Interference2 min
- P2 18:21TBLBlair Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:21TBLSteve Downie: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:24SJSMichal Handzus: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Malone – Purcell2:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Tyrell – Stamkos3:36
xG 0.02–0.41 (6%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Gervais5:44
xG 0.03–0.01 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kubina – Brewer2:10
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman2:00
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Ferriero6:31
xG 1.41–0.07 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Couture6:00
xG 1.15–0.03 (98%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Winchester – Murray – Desjardins5:44
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Handzus – Mitchell – McGinn6:37
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Vlasic9:53
xG 1.41–0.15 (90%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Burns – Demers8:45
xG 1.26–0.34 (79%)attempts 10–12goals 3–1
- White – Braun7:52
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).