Fri, Dec 23, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 310 | 19 | 18 | 527 |
| NYI | 18 | 112 | 113 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Tim Connolly, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 4:22TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 11:15TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Tim Connolly, Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P1 15:45NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Mike Mottau, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 0:40NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 8:59TORJoey CrabbSHGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 10:30NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:51TORJoffrey LupulENAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:37NYIMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:22NYIMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:22TORKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:29TORKeith Aulie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:56TORCody Franson: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:59TORJoffrey Lupul: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:59NYIJohn Tavares: Diving2 min
- P3 17:40NYITravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:40TORTim Connolly: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak12:33
xG 1.09–0.65 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Connolly – MacArthur – Kadri12:17
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin11:01
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Boyce7:27
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Aulie15:27
xG 1.03–0.70 (60%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
- Franson – Gardiner10:54
xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Gardiner3:14
xG 0.12–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Reasoner – Wallace – Martin2:21
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wallace – Bailey – Martin2:41
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Reasoner – Haley – Niederreiter5:42
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:07
xG 0.02–0.45 (5%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Eaton11:32
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Streit – Jurcina17:12
xG 0.80–1.00 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic17:17
xG 0.63–1.01 (39%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).