Fri, Dec 23, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 017 | 214 | 16 | 337 |
| DAL | 38 | 113 | 28 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Radek Dvorak, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:41DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Trevor Daley, Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 12:30DALSteve OttAssists: Trevor Daley, Mike Ribeiro · Deflected, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 8:56NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Blake Geoffrion, Jerred Smithson · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P2 11:45NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 14:10DALMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 4:38NSHDavid LegwandPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 5:08DALJamie BennAssists: Loui Eriksson, Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.28 xG3–5
- P3 17:53DALMichael RyderENAssists: Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.73 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:37DALLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:29DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 3:47NSHJordin Tootoo: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29DALAdam Burish: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:06DALNicklas Grossmann: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:58DALAlex Goligoski: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28NSHBlake Geoffrion: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Erat – Smith11:31
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Smithson – Geoffrion – Halischuk5:13
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Tootoo – Spaling – Wilson8:31
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Fisher – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist9:15
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber16:06
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
- Blum – Hillen10:03
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Josi12:37
xG 0.16–0.69 (19%)attempts 10–12goals 0–3
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBurish – Wandell – Benn3:06
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Fiddler – Nystrom9:44
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Ryder – Eriksson – Benn9:05
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Burish – Nystrom – Wandell3:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Larsen10:23
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Souray – Larsen4:39
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Fistric – Pardy6:49
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).