Fri, Dec 23, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 013 | 011 | 37 | 331 |
| VAN | 06 | 07 | 117 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:36CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 14:08CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 16:59VANDan HamhuisAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 19:24CGYOlli JokinenENAssists: Jarome Iginla, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:03CGYTom Kostopoulos: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:05CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:51VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:52CGYChris Butler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Glencross14:18
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Morrison – Kostopoulos – Jackman8:33
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Comeau – Byron – Horak9:06
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Bourque – Backlund12:28
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Butler17:45
xG 0.85–0.30 (74%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Sarich – Brodie10:58
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Smith2:12
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows15:57
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen5:49
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Raymond9:01
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson5:28
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sulzer – Edler2:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Alberts – Sulzer9:20
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Sulzer2:33
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).