Thu, Dec 29, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 19 | 29 | 00 | 324 |
| CAR | 15 | 010 | 216 | 13 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15CARBrandon SutterAssists: Drayson Bowman · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:43TORNazem KadriAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 6:36TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Darryl Boyce, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 9:08TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Deflected, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 9:48CAREric StaalAssists: Zac Dalpe, Jiri Tlusty · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 11:50CARZac DalpeAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 3:09CAREric StaalPPGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Jamie McBain · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:36TORMatt Frattin: Interference2 min
- P1 12:18CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:58CARTim Gleason: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:08CARZac Dalpe: Interference2 min
- P2 11:17TORKeith Aulie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:45CARJiri Tlusty: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:49TORClarke MacArthur: Interference2 min
- P3 7:02CARBryan Allen: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:55CARAnthony Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 2:31TORTim Connolly: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Connolly – MacArthur – Kadri6:57
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Steckel – Crabb – Boyce6:39
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Frattin9:20
xG 0.21–0.52 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak10:17
xG 0.25–1.25 (17%)attempts 6–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner8:59
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Gunnarsson – Schenn12:46
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie13:56
xG 0.19–1.51 (11%)attempts 6–18goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Tlusty – Dalpe8:05
xG 1.40–0.47 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- LaRose – Sutter – Bowman7:15
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Brent – Stewart – Nodl5:49
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Ruutu – Jokinen8:43
xG 0.25–0.59 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpacek – McBain3:02
xG 1.18–0.04 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Harrison – Faulk11:18
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 14–1goals 1–1
- Allen – Gleason3:39
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).