Tue, Jan 3, 2012·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 15 | 17 | 326 |
| BUF | 18 | 112 | 213 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:23BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jochen Hecht, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:10BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Drew Stafford, Brayden McNabb · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 9:24EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 14:34BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 16:38BUFNathan GerbeGWGAssists: Drew Stafford · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 18:10EDMCorey PotterAssists: Jordan Eberle, Anton Lander · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:26BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:34EDMAles Hemsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:04BUFPatrick Kaleta: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 9:10BUFNathan Gerbe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:54EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Belanger – Eager – Jones7:38
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall15:10
xG 0.60–0.56 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Smyth – Eberle – Lander10:29
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Green – Horcoff – Hartikainen10:04
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Smid16:13
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Peckham – Teubert12:18
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Sutton – Petry16:53
xG 0.47–0.85 (36%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Stafford – Gerbe11:14
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Boyes – Adam – Kassian8:23
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta9:46
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek8:58
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGragnani – Brennan13:24
xG 0.72–0.29 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Regehr – Weber16:01
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Leopold – McNabb14:35
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).