Tue, Jan 3, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 27 | 06 | 324 |
| TOR | 213 | 316 | 213 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: JT Wyman, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 3:25TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Tim Connolly, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 8:46TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Tim Connolly, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 12:28TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 13:26TBLPavel KubinaAssists: Eric Brewer · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 13:43TORDarryl BoyceGWGAssists: Matt Frattin, Keith Aulie · Snap, 0.22 xG3–4
- P2 19:22TORMatt FrattinAssists: Nazem Kadri, Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 1:23TORDion PhaneufPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.24 xG3–6
- P3 12:28TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.51 xG3–7
Penalties (21)
- P1 1:15TBLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Holding2 min
- P1 11:58TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:58TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:58TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:40TORCody Franson: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:20TORLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:35TORTim Connolly: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:34TORMatt Frattin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:59TBLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:59TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59TORKeith Aulie: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59TORDarryl Boyce: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:59TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:59TORDarryl Boyce: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:56TBLTeddy Purcell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35TORJonas Gustavsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:32TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:04TBLAdam Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:32TBLNate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:32TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos7:39
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Hall – Jones – Tyrell3:17
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos4:25
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Moore – Wyman9:10
xG 0.22–0.55 (28%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Gilroy2:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Gervais8:06
xG 0.17–0.21 (45%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gilroy2:26
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Lupul – Kessel9:50
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 2–2
- Lombardi – MacArthur – Kadri6:22
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Steckel – Boyce – Frattin6:05
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Crabb – Grabovski – Kulemin9:52
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schenn9:43
xG 0.39–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Franson – Gunnarsson3:05
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie13:04
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).