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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 3, 2012·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 81% of the time.

TOR winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:58Goal by Lecavalier (Wyman, Moore)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Kubina, Brewer, Lecavalier, Moore, Wyman

  3. P1 1:15Bergeron: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lombardi, MacArthur, Franson, Gardiner, Kadri · TBL Bergeron, Gervais, Thompson, Pyatt, Purcell

  4. P1 1:57Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Garon5v4
  5. P1 3:01Shot by Gardiner, saved by Garon5v4
  6. P1 3:25Goal by Lupul (Connolly, Gardiner)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Franson, Kessel, Gardiner · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Bergeron, Gervais, Stamkos

  7. P1 4:04Shot by Grabovski, saved by Garon
  8. P1 4:41Shot by Brewer, saved by Gustavsson
  9. P1 6:18Shot by Kessel, saved by Garon
  10. P1 7:14Shot by Frattin, saved by Garon
  11. P1 7:27Shot by Grabovski, saved by Garon
  12. P1 7:33Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Garon
  13. P1 8:33Shot by Tyrell, saved by Gustavsson
  14. P1 8:41Shot by Lupul, saved by Garon
  15. P1 8:46Goal by Gunnarsson (Connolly, Lupul)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Kubina, Brewer, Hall, Jones, Tyrell

  16. P1 10:23Shot by Gilroy, saved by Gustavsson
  17. P1 11:40Shot by St. Louis, saved by Gustavsson
  18. P1 11:46Shot by Clark, saved by Gustavsson
  19. P1 11:58Shot by Downie, saved by Gustavsson
  20. P1 11:58Downie: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Crabb, Phaneuf, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson · TBL Hall, Bergeron, Gervais, Downie, Tyrell

  21. P1 11:58Downie: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Crabb, Phaneuf, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson · TBL Hall, Bergeron, Gervais, Downie, Tyrell

  22. P1 11:58Phaneuf: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Crabb, Phaneuf, Grabovski, Kulemin, Gunnarsson · TBL Hall, Bergeron, Gervais, Downie, Tyrell

  23. P1 12:54Shot by Kessel, saved by Garon5v4
  24. P1 13:07Shot by Franson, saved by Garon5v4
  25. P1 13:33Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Garon5v4
  26. P1 14:33Shot by Lecavalier, saved by Gustavsson
  27. P1 14:40Franson: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Boyce, Franson, Frattin, Gardiner · TBL St. Louis, Lecavalier, Bergeron, Gervais, Purcell

  28. P1 17:20Schenn: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Brewer, Thompson, Pyatt, Tyrell, Gilroy

  29. P1 18:17Shot by Stamkos, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  30. P1 18:35Connolly: Elbowing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Lombardi, Crabb, Phaneuf, Aulie · TBL Kubina, Lecavalier, Bergeron, Downie, Purcell

  31. P1 18:35Shot by Bergeron, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  32. P1 19:31Shot by St. Louis, saved by Gustavsson4v5
  33. P1 0:00Period end
  34. P2 0:00Period start
  35. P2 1:11Shot by Downie, saved by Gustavsson
  36. P2 3:39Shot by Aulie, saved by Garon
  37. P2 3:55Shot by Stamkos, saved by Gustavsson
  38. P2 4:47Shot by Kessel, saved by Garon
  39. P2 5:25Shot by Thompson, saved by Gustavsson
  40. P2 6:13Shot by Kadri, saved by Garon
  41. P2 6:34Frattin: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Steckel, MacArthur, Gunnarsson, Schenn, Kadri · TBL Clark, Lecavalier, Moore, Downie, Gilroy

  42. P2 8:11Shot by Connolly, saved by Garon4v5
  43. P2 8:48Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Garon
  44. P2 9:53Shot by Kulemin, saved by Garon
  45. P2 10:23Shot by Bergeron, saved by Gustavsson
  46. P2 11:55Goal by Stamkos (St. Louis)+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Aulie · TBL Kubina, Brewer, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos

  47. P2 12:28Goal by Grabovski (Lupul, Schenn)+23 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lupul, Grabovski, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Clark, Hall, Thompson, Pyatt, Gilroy

  48. P2 13:26Goal by Kubina (Brewer)+23 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Crabb, Grabovski, Franson, Kulemin, Gardiner · TBL Kubina, Brewer, Lecavalier, Moore, Downie

  49. P2 13:43Goal by Boyce (Frattin, Aulie)+23 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Kubina, Brewer, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos

  50. P2 13:59Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  51. P2 13:59Downie: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  52. P2 13:59Downie: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  53. P2 13:59Aulie: Roughing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  54. P2 13:59Boyce: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  55. P2 13:59Downie: Misconduct (10 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  56. P2 13:59Boyce: Misconduct (10 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Clark, St. Louis, Downie, Stamkos, Gilroy

  57. P2 14:40Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Roloson5v4
  58. P2 15:00Shot by Kessel, saved by Roloson5v4
  59. P2 15:14Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Roloson5v4
  60. P2 15:33Shot by Gardiner, saved by Roloson5v4
  61. P2 16:04Shot by MacArthur, saved by Roloson
  62. P2 18:09Shot by Gilroy, saved by Gustavsson
  63. P2 19:20Shot by Kadri, saved by Roloson
  64. P2 19:22Goal by Frattin (Kadri, Lombardi)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Lombardi, Phaneuf, Frattin, Schenn, Kadri · TBL Brewer, St. Louis, Purcell, Stamkos, Gilroy

  65. P2 19:28Shot by Kadri, saved by Roloson
  66. P2 0:00Period end
  67. P3 0:00Period start
  68. P3 0:56Purcell: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Kubina, Brewer, St. Louis, Purcell, Stamkos

  69. P3 1:23Goal by Phaneuf (Grabovski, MacArthur)5v4+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Phaneuf, MacArthur, Grabovski, Gunnarsson, Kadri · TBL Kubina, Brewer, Hall, Thompson

  70. P3 1:44Shot by Franson, saved by Roloson
  71. P3 2:18Shot by Kessel, saved by Roloson
  72. P3 3:18Shot by Stamkos, saved by Gustavsson
  73. P3 6:35Gustavsson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Lombardi, MacArthur, Franson, Gardiner, Kadri · TBL Kubina, Lecavalier, Moore, Bergeron, Wyman

  74. P3 7:12Shot by Gunnarsson, saved by Roloson4v5
  75. P3 9:10Shot by Kessel, saved by Roloson
  76. P3 10:13Shot by Gervais, saved by Gustavsson
  77. P3 10:57Shot by Lombardi, saved by Roloson
  78. P3 11:32Kubina: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Steckel, Phaneuf, Boyce, Aulie, Frattin · TBL Kubina, Brewer, St. Louis, Lecavalier, Downie

  79. P3 12:04Hall: Roughing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel, Gunnarsson · TBL Clark, Brewer, Hall, Thompson

  80. P3 12:01Shot by Hall, saved by Gustavsson5v4
  81. P3 12:27Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Roloson5v3
  82. P3 12:28Goal by Kessel (Lupul, Phaneuf)5v30 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Steckel, Lupul, Phaneuf, Kessel · TBL Clark, Brewer, Thompson

  83. P3 12:46Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Roloson5v4
  84. P3 13:06Shot by Phaneuf, saved by Roloson5v4
  85. P3 15:16Shot by Wyman, saved by Gustavsson
  86. P3 16:32Thompson: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Kubina, Brewer, Thompson, Jones, Tyrell

  87. P3 16:32Schenn: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Connolly, Lupul, Kessel, Gunnarsson, Schenn · TBL Kubina, Brewer, Thompson, Jones, Tyrell

  88. P3 16:51Shot by Lupul, saved by Roloson
  89. P3 17:18Shot by Steckel, saved by Roloson
  90. P3 19:04Shot by Moore, saved by Gustavsson
  91. P3 19:22Shot by MacArthur, saved by Roloson
  92. P3 19:46Shot by Jones, saved by Gustavsson
  93. P3 0:00Period end
  94. P3 0:00Final