Sun, Jan 8, 2012·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Anaheim Ducks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 16 | 24 | 418 |
| ANA | 416 | 17 | 24 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Luca Sbisa, Jason Blake · Snap, 0.36 xG0–1
- P1 13:02ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 17:31CBJRick NashAssists: Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 18:24ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Lubomir Visnovsky · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 18:59ANASaku KoivuAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 4:11CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: Aaron Johnson, Grant Clitsome · Slap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 18:24ANACorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–5
- P3 0:27ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Niklas Hagman, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 4:27CBJRick NashUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
- P3 14:06CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Derek Dorsett, Samuel Pahlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 19:17ANACorey PerryENAssists: Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.51 xG4–7
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:55CBJDerick Brassard: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:52CBJMarc Methot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:45ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:11CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:11ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:17CBJDerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:43CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:24CBJDerek MacKenzie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:48CBJDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:48ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:53CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:53ANASheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:05ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min
- P3 7:30CBJTomas Kubalik: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:17ANAJean-Francois Jacques: Elbowing5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Brassard4:17
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Vermette – Umberger – Kubalik6:51
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Brassard4:48
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Nash – Carter10:03
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Methot – Clitsome16:20
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Tyutin – Nikitin12:28
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Johnson – Moore12:52
xG 0.09–0.81 (10%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Hagman10:55
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:27
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Jacques – Pelley – Beleskey6:02
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Blake – Cogliano – Palmieri8:57
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Fowler14:02
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Lydman – Brookbank10:04
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Sbisa14:47
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).